95% Of U.S. Palladium Is Imported. 17 Million Ounces of It Sit in One Greenland Deposit

Sibanye-Stillwater's basket price is up 88% year-on-year. Platinum Group Metals just signed a Saudi smelter MOU. The Russian palladium import economics are being redrawn in Washington. The math on Western Pd-Au-Pt has fundamentally changed — and very few deposits sit where the new math points.

The palladium supply problem is no longer a forecast. It is a tariff schedule. The U.S. Department of Commerce has estimated a dumping margin of approximately 828% on unworked Russian palladium imports — a number large enough that, if any tariffs are imposed, the entire North American import economics of the metal have to be rewritten[1]. The U.S. imports roughly 95% of the palladium it consumes. There is one mine of consequence on American soil — the J-M Reef in Montana — and global PGM producers have already started repricing the basket: Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) reported its U.S. PGM operations delivered a 2E basket price 88% higher year-on-year in Q1 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of $48 million from those same operations[2]. That is what supply-shock economics look like when they hit the income statement.

CHARLOTTE, N.C., May 12, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- USA News Group News Commentary — That is the macro environment in which Greenland Mines Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRML) released the results of an independent metal-price sensitivity analysis on its Skaergaard Project on May 7, 2026. The 2022 NI 43-101 Mineral Resource on Skaergaard hosts 17.15 million ounces of palladium — equivalent to 13 to 15 years of total U.S. palladium consumption in a single deposit, located in a Western-aligned jurisdiction less than 1,600 kilometers from the U.S. eastern seaboard[3]. The SLR Consulting sensitivity work, applied to the existing underground-constrained block model with all geologic and technical inputs held constant, indicates 16.58 Moz palladium-equivalent Indicated and 21.92 Moz Inferred in the high-price case — a 45% grade uplift in the Indicated category and 55% in the Inferred versus the 2022 base case[4]. These sensitivity scenarios are not new Mineral Resource or Mineral Reserve estimates and do not constitute an economic study; they are illustrative of Skaergaard's leverage to different long-term metal-price assumptions.

The deposit didn't change. The math around it did.

THE STRUCTURAL POSITION

The Skaergaard intrusion has been studied since the 1990s. Approximately $30 million of historical exploration investment has gone into building what is now a 2022 NI 43-101 Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource of 25.4 Moz palladium-equivalent and 23.5 Moz gold-equivalent, which, on an illustrative basis and before any technical or economic factors, corresponds to a gross undiscounted in-situ resource value of approximately $68 billion at February 2026 metal prices[5]. Greenland Mines holds an 80% direct interest in the Project, with an option on the remaining 20%, executed through its 80%-owned Greenland subsidiary Major Precious Greenland A/S — which was admitted to the European Raw Materials Alliance alongside Greenland Mines on April 22, 2026[6].

The 2022 base case was constructed using $1,725/oz Pd, $1,800/oz Au, and $1,250/oz Pt, with the resource constrained by an underground mining shape. SLR's three sensitivity cases — Low, Medium, and High — applied updated metal price assumptions ranging from $3,000/oz Au in the Low case to $5,000/oz Au in the High case, leaving every other technical input untouched[4]. The Company has signaled that price sensitivity is only the first lever it intends to pull. The 2026 program will begin evaluating open-pit and bulk-mining scenarios alongside the underground concept — a separate, mine-method-based lever independent of any further metal-price assumption. The 2026 field, drill, and bulk-sample campaign is fully funded.

President Bo Møller Stensgaard, Ph.D. framed the result this way: "Skaergaard increasingly as a future operation in the making."[4]

Any decision to advance Skaergaard to development would require completion of detailed technical and economic studies, and there can be no assurance that an economically viable mining operation will ultimately be established. Greenland Mines is currently focused on completing the technical work and derisking steps that would be required before any such decision could be considered.

THE PGM SUPERCYCLE NAMES

Several U.S.-listed PGM and precious-metals names have just reported material newsflow in the same window as the Greenland Mines sensitivity work — each one reflecting a different facet of the same structural shift.

Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) operates the Stillwater and East Boulder mines in Montana, which extract ore from the J-M Reef — the only known significant source of PGMs in the United States and the highest-grade PGM deposit in the world. The Company's Q1 2026 operating update, released on May 6, 2026, showed U.S. PGM operations delivered 2E PGM production of 68,386 ounces, an all-in sustaining cost of $1,291 per 2E ounce, and adjusted EBITDA of $48 million on a 2E basket price 88% higher year-on-year[2]. The Columbus Metallurgical Complex, also operated by Sibanye-Stillwater, is one of the world's largest recyclers of PGMs derived from spent catalytic converters. For investors trying to understand what the realized PGM basket price actually looks like at the U.S. producer level, Sibanye's Q1 is the cleanest data point on the public market.

Platinum Group Metals (NYSE:PLG) is the operator of the Waterberg Project in South Africa, a fully mechanised, shallow, decline-access platinum-palladium-rhodium-gold mine projected to be one of the largest and lowest-cost underground PGM mines globally. The Definitive Feasibility Study Update outlines 23.41 million 4E ounces of proven and probable reserves, 33.76 million 4E ounces of measured and indicated resources, projected annual production of 353,208 ounces, and a post-tax life-of-mine cash flow of $6.50 billion across a 54-year mine life[7]. The Company's previously announced Memorandum of Understanding with Saudi Arabia's Ajlan & Bros and the Ministry of Investment of Saudi Arabia, supporting development of a PGM smelter and base-metal refinery in the Kingdom under Vision 2030, remains active as part of Waterberg's broader processing strategy[8]. Platinum Group Metals ranks among a small handful of permitted, large-scale PGM developers globally, and Waterberg is one of the few projects in its class with a credible pathway to construction financing.

Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS) reported record Q1 2026 results on May 5, 2026, with revenue of $1.15 billion (+49.3% year-on-year), net earnings of $456 million, free cash flow of $488 million, and a record cash balance of $1.8 billion[9]. Silver Segment all-in sustaining costs fell to $6.63 per ounce, helped by attributable ounces from Pan American's 44% joint venture interest in Juanicipio (operated by Fresnillo plc), acquired through the September 2025 MAG Silver acquisition. On March 24, 2026, the Company released a revised Preliminary Economic Assessment for the La Colorada Skarn Project, projecting peak annual silver production of more than 19 million ounces and a 37-year mine life. The Board approved an initial $265 million spend over five years to advance the 588 Decline and East Hoisting Shaft — the first stage of a $1.9 billion total investment plan. For investors evaluating where high-margin silver and gold producers are deploying capital, Pan American's Q1 cash position and La Colorada commitments illustrate exactly what the precious-metals supercycle is funding.

Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) reported record Q1 2026 results on May 5, 2026, with revenue from continuing operations exceeding $411 million (up 100% year-on-year), record adjusted EBITDA of $265 million, and record free cash flow of $144 million on silver production of 3.9 million ounces[10]. Consolidated silver all-in sustaining cost (excluding Keno Hill) was $8.17 per ounce. On March 25, 2026, Hecla completed the divestiture of its Casa Berardi gold operation, retaining a 9.9% equity interest in Orezone, and used proceeds to eliminate all long-term debt. The Company is now North America's largest debt-free primary silver producer, with a long-term production target of more than 20 million ounces of silver annually. Hecla's Q1 demonstrates what a Tier-1 jurisdiction-focused, debt-free precious-metals balance sheet looks like at current realized prices.

THE GRML POSITION

Against that backdrop — a U.S. PGM producer reporting an 88% basket-price increase, a permitted South African PGM developer signing a Saudi smelter MOU, a record-quarter silver producer deploying $1.8 billion of cash, and a debt-free silver-gold producer with a 20-million-ounce long-term silver target — Greenland Mines' May 7 sensitivity work translates the macro repricing of the past two quarters into a tangible deposit-level number.

The H5 horizon — historically the highest-grade zone in the deposit — moves from 2.85 g/t PdEq Indicated in the 2022 base case to 6.56 g/t PdEq Indicated in the High case. The Inferred grade in H5 moves from 2.49 g/t PdEq to 5.57 g/t PdEq. Total Indicated PdEq content moves from 11.41 Moz (2022) to 16.58 Moz in the high-price case. Total Inferred PdEq content moves from 14.11 Moz (2022) to 21.92 Moz in the same scenario[4]. The deposit didn't change. The price deck did.

SLR Consulting (Canada) Ltd. — the same Qualified Person firm that authored the 2022 NI 43-101 Technical Report — conducted the sensitivity analysis. GTK Mintec is driving metallurgy and pilot processing at the Geological Survey of Finland's Outokumpu facility. WSP is leading the environmental baseline. The technical foundation is in place. The 2026 field, drill, and bulk-sample campaign is fully funded. The 2026 program will begin evaluating open-pit and bulk-mining scenarios alongside the underground concept — layering a second, mine-method-based lever on top of the metal-price lever[4].

In a Western-aligned jurisdiction. With 80% direct ownership and an option on the remaining 20%. Inside the European Raw Materials Alliance.

That is what one of the cleanest macro intersections in the precious-metals development universe currently looks like.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What did the May 7, 2026 SLR sensitivity study actually conclude?

Applied to the existing 2022 underground-constrained Mineral Resource model, with all geologic and technical inputs held constant, the high-price sensitivity case indicates 16.58 million ounces of palladium-equivalent Indicated and 21.92 million ounces of palladium-equivalent Inferred — a 45% grade uplift in the Indicated category and 55% in the Inferred versus the 2022 base case[4].

Why does the 95% U.S. palladium import dependency matter for this story?

Because Skaergaard's 17.15 million ounces of palladium contained in the existing 2022 NI 43-101 resource is equivalent to 13 to 15 years of recent total U.S. palladium consumption — in a single deposit, in a Western-aligned jurisdiction[3]. With the U.S. Department of Commerce estimating a 828% dumping margin on unworked Russian palladium imports[1], non-Russian, non-South-African PGM supply has become a strategic priority.

What is the European Raw Materials Alliance designation?

On April 22, 2026, Greenland Mines and its 80%-owned subsidiary Major Precious Greenland A/S were admitted to the European Raw Materials Alliance, the industry-driven alliance established by the European Commission to secure reliable, sustainable access to critical and strategic raw materials for Europe's industrial ecosystems[6].

How is the 2026 program funded?

The 2026 field, drill, and bulk-sample campaign is fully funded per the Company's May 7, 2026 disclosure[4].

For more information about Greenland Mines Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRML), visit the USA News Group GRML profile.

Article Sources:

1. U.S. Department of Commerce, preliminary anti-dumping determination on unworked Russian palladium imports.

2. Sibanye Stillwater Limited, Operating Update for the Quarter Ended 31 March 2026, May 6, 2026.

3. Greenland Mines Ltd., investgreenlandmines.com corporate disclosure.

4. Greenland Mines Ltd., "Greenland Mines Reports Up To 45% – 55% Increase in Palladium Equivalent (PdEq) Grades at Skaergaard in Sensitivity Study," May 7, 2026.

5. Klotho Neurosciences, Inc., Form 8-K and accompanying disclosures regarding the acquisition of Greenland Mines Corp., March 4, 2026.

6. Greenland Mines Ltd., "Global Palladium-Gold-Platinum Market Gains Momentum as the Skaergaard Project Places itself in the EU Industrial Framework," announcement of admission to the European Raw Materials Alliance, April 22, 2026.

7. Platinum Group Metals Ltd., Waterberg Project Definitive Feasibility Study Update; corporate presentation, February 2026.

8. Platinum Group Metals Ltd., "Platinum Group Metals Ltd. and Ajlan & Bros Company for Mining Enter MOU with Saudi Arabia Ministry of Investment," November 26, 2024; PLG Q2 2026 Results, April 10, 2026.

9. Pan American Silver Corp., "Pan American Silver Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results," May 5, 2026.

10. Hecla Mining Company, First Quarter 2026 Results, May 5, 2026.

CONTACT:

USA NEWS GROUP

info@usanewsgroup.com

(604) 265-2873

Cautionary Note Regarding Mineral Resources: Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. The sensitivity cases referenced in this article are illustrative of the deposit's leverage to long-term metal price environments rather than economic estimates. No preliminary economic assessment, pre-feasibility study, or feasibility study has been completed on the Skaergaard Project. There is no certainty that any portion of the Mineral Resources will be converted to Mineral Reserves or that the Project will be brought into commercial production.

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