RXO's Latest Curve Report Highlights 16.5% Year-Over-Year Surge in First-Quarter Truckload Spot Rates
- The Curve, RXO's proprietary truckload spot rate index, reached its highest level in more than four years
- In the second quarter to-date, spot rates, as measured by the Curve, have continued to rise both year-over-year and sequentially; carrier capacity continues to tighten relative to shipper demand
RXO (NYSE:RXO) a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions, today released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, which shows rapidly rising truckload spot rates, excluding the impacts of fuel.
In first quarter, spot rates, as measured by the Curve, rose 16.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since the third quarter of 2021. This was also an acceleration from the fourth quarter of 2025, in which rates rose by 5.2%.
Through May 15, the Curve is on pace to finish the second quarter at an even higher mark than the first quarter.
The surge in rates is the result of continued attrition of carrier capacity, driven by federal regulation enforcement, which has led to a supply imbalance relative to demand.
"We've been in a year-over-year inflationary market for several quarters due to declining carrier capacity, but that hadn't driven a substantial increase in rates until recently," said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. "The first quarter saw a significant spike in truckload rates, and that trend has continued into the first half of the second quarter. During CVSA Roadcheck last week, which further constrained capacity, truckload rates outperformed seasonality and hit levels we haven't seen since 2022."
Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, said, "We're seeing significant linehaul and contract rate increases, despite muted shipper demand. Carriers remain under immense cost pressure, driven by increasing labor expenses, a higher cost of capital, insurance premiums, and, of course, diesel prices. The recent surge in rates, primarily due to continued capacity exits, has allowed carriers to begin to offset these inflationary pressures. If there is any uptick in shipping volumes, rates will rise at an even faster pace."
To read the full first-quarter Curve report, visit https://rxo.com/resources/research/us-truckload-market-guide/.
The Curve is a leading source of freight market data and is trusted by the world's largest shippers. It exemplifies RXO's commitment to providing market-based, data-driven insights that help shippers and carriers navigate the dynamic truckload market.
About RXO
RXO (NYSE:RXO) is a leading provider of asset-light transportation solutions. RXO offers tech-enabled truck brokerage services together with complementary solutions including managed transportation and last mile delivery. The company combines massive capacity and cutting-edge technology to move freight efficiently through supply chains across North America. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, N.C. Visit RXO.com for more information and connect with RXO on Facebook, X, LinkedIn, Instagram and YouTube.
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